Spot vs future distribution is not arbitrage. This checks whether options imply a different executable forward than the futures/perp market after spreads and estimated costs.
PM ↔ Deribit implied P(BTC > K). Screening and backtest only — not trade signals.
Use the buttons below to say how you disagree with the market — for 30 days.
Each button push nudges the teal curve. Use Reset to return to the market view.
Unlimited upside or deep crash views need a custom distribution (not a simple center/vol shift). Use Request research beta for fat-tail / skew overlays — on the roadmap for advanced belief mode.
Full form: /feedback